Westminster's Changeable Weather

All being well, Tuesday 17^th May 2011 could turn out to be a major victory for the Tories in their bid to become the 'greenest government ever'. Or will it?

Writing a blog about Environmental issues is normally pretty straightforward, since science and politics are two particularly slow-moving beasts. Science is studious and thorough, whilst politics can simply seem lumbering and flat-footed. Frustrating for those involved, undoubtedly, but the study of environmental politics thus becomes, for the most part, one of careful consideration.

Of course, like everything, such beasts can suddenly spring into noisy life and take giant strides forwards, or backwards, depending on your viewpoint. This past week has been one of those moments, and perhaps summed up with my preparations for this blog.

For the most of today, in anticipation of tomorrow's expected announcements on whether the Coalition government will legislate the recommendations set out in the Committee on Climate Change's Fourth Carbon Budget 2023-2027, I have been carefully poring over the report itself and associated media articles to ensure that I could give as clear a picture as possible of what might happen tomorrow.

Following some careful planning, some dredging up of relevant statistics, and some consideration of how things might play out in the political arena, I was planning to summarise what we might expect from tomorrow's announcement.  Now, I have simply decided to give up and wait and see. This isn't the sounding of defeat, more a case of being completely baffled by the myriad noises coming out of Westminster this past week.

It all began last week when David Kennedy, Chief Executive of the Committee on Climate Change, which published the report, warned David Cameron that his government's decision on the report was 'a key test' for his green credentials. At the same time, Jonathon Porritt published a report on behalf of Friends of the Earth stating that the government's hopes of meeting such words with actions were 'vanishingly remote'.

This, at least, seem to spur the government into action, with David Cameron reported to be stepping in personally to settle the row between energy secretary Chris Huhne and George Osborne and Vince Cable.  The Guardian were the first to report the scoop on Saturday evening, reporting that the Coalition had committed to a 'historic' climate deal that would 'put Britain at the forefront of the battle against Climate Change'.  I even made room on my Twitter for a note of thanks to the Coalition and the Tories in particular for having the sense to push this through.

I should have known that this would not be the end of the story...

My suspicions about the deal were first aroused this morning with an article in the Independent which allowed EEF, the 'manufacturers' organisation for UK manufacturing companies', to make a final, desperate bid to appeal to the government to reject the deal.  Shortly after note in the BBC's online coverage of the deal making mention of a 'get out clause' which was negotiated into the deal by the Treasury, the Department of Business and the Department of Transport, whereby the targets could be 'reviewed' should the rest of the EU fail to commit to similar cuts.  This was later clarified by the Spectator, which notes that the targets are 'dependent on the European Union agreeing to embark on an equally significant emissions cut by early 2014'.

The key point in all of this is that, despite some keen reportage by some of the key media players, the posturing from all sides of this particular political battleground has managed to create a fog of confusion about what will or will not happen.

So what are we looking out for tomorrow?

Well, for my mind, the main points that will be required tomorrow are as follows:

• Legislation of a target to reduce emissions by 60% relative to 1990 levels by 2030
• Adjustment of the second and third carbon budgets to deliver an 'economy-wide' reduction of 37% on 1990 levels by 2020.
• A commitment to deliver policies to meet these targets, as well as undertaking a 'fundamental reform' of the electricity market.
• The inclusion of International Aviation and Shipping into future agreements.

If we see these delivered, then this will truly be a victory for the environment and the fight against climate change.

If, however, we see this delivered with the caveat that 'if they don't do it, we won't', then the policy could find itself in serious danger of future collapse.

Its time for the Coalition to show us what their green credentials are really made of.  Unfortunately, I fear for the worst.  But judging by the changing political tides of the past few days, we just don't know...